Calgary Historical Average House Prices & Sales Timeline
A look at Calgary house prices & sales over the past few decades. During the early 1980′s boom/bust, Calgary average house prices peaked at $110,184 (Total MLS) in January 1982. Prices bottomed out in November 1984 at $68,322 – at … Continue reading
Calgary Historical Average House Prices & Sales Timeline
A look at Calgary house prices & sales over the past few decades. Note: Up until May 2007, the residential statistics compiled by CREB included “single family homes, condos, and mobile homes in the city of Calgary and surrounding district. Please be aware that these numbers do not include ”Total MLS” which includes Country Residential and Rural Land. Country [...]
House Price Index: October 2009
For the first time in almost a year house prices in Canada showed a year-over-year increase. Canadian house prices were up 0.6% from October of last year and up 1.3% from last month. Prices have increased by 1% or more for the last 5 months in a row. In October, however, the monthly [...]
October 2009 Calgary Real Estate Statistics
Metro-Calgary Single Family Homes (SFH) October recorded an average price of $462,465 and a median of $410k – an increase month-over-month (September 2009: $459,085/$399,900) as well as year-over-year (October 2008: $449,100/$390,000) This is the highest average price since June 2008, and the highest median price since May 2008. Month-end inventory was 3003, its lowest level since April/May 2007. Metro-Calgary [...]
Calgary Resale House Price Model
The following graphs illustrate the historical relationship between absorption rate and house price changes in Calgary. As the absorption rate decreases, demand exceeds supply, and house prices rise. When the absorption rate is high, supply exceeds demand and house prices fall. While I do not believe this metric is useful for determining long term price point, I do think it is useful for determing the near term price trends.
[click above for larger view]
[click above for larger view]
Recent history indicates that an annual absorption rate of 4 would be a market that is roughly balanced. In 2008, Calgary had record amounts of resale inventory and these inventory levels have dropped in 2009. Also, sales dropped dramatically following the credit spread crisis, but have since improved on a seasonally adjusted basis. If the current inventory glut continues to decline at it’s current annual rate, and sales stay flat seasonally adjusted, it is possible that the Calgary housing market will bottom in December 2009 after falling further in autumn. I think there are upside risks and downside risks to this forecast. I believe it is prudent for all market participants to err on the side of caution both when formulating business plans and household budgeting. It’s probably also worth noting that house prices are likely to increase by only in the zero to very small single digits for a number of years after bottoming, so there is no rush even if you are trying to time the bottom.
Data: Bob Truman – First Place Realty
Long Term Relationship Between Calgary House Prices and Alberta Economic Activity Diverge – Irrational Exuberance?
The price of houses is linked to the economic well-being of the region. Recently, the Alberta economy has been extremely strong and Calgary house prices have increased tremendously. But the question remains, did house prices increase rationally in comparison to economic growth?
A comparison of house prices and GDP per capita show that they roughly track each other for 24 years and then sharply diverge. This could imply that recent asset valuations of houses have been irrationally exuberant, and a more rational valuation of ~$300,000 would be approprate given the current level of economic acitivity.
